Assignment
USING
SIX SUITABLE POINTS DISCUSS POSSIBLE WAYS OF MAKING POPULATION CENSUS IN
NIGERIA MORE RELIABLE WITH REFERENCE.
1.
Adapting New Technologies to Census
Operations
Improvements
in census technology can result in important gains in the quality and reliability
of census in Nigeria. At present a number of organizations are attempting to
help bring innovation to census and statistical operations. Among the concerns
regarding new technology are these: how to choose appropriate technology; how
to maintain the integrity of existing statistical systems; how to deal with
outsourcing certain tasks; and how to maintain confidentiality of data. Some
technologies, such as mobile telephony, have made person-to-person
communication in the field easier, as have fax and e-mail capabilities.
Bar-code technology has made management of materials more efficient and if
adopted in Nigeria will improve in the quality of census; hence, making it more
reliable.
Also
Geographic information system (GIS) technology should be used in population
censuses to generate maps for enumeration and for data presentation purposes.
Global positioning systems (GPS) are cheap and available, and they can be used
by cartographic field staff to annotate topographical maps and satellite
photographs to produce excellent maps for enumerators as these will help to
improve in the quality and reliability of population census in the country.
2.
The
use of modern Census-processing software
Many
countries, especially those in the developing world like Nigeria, have long
relied on public-domain software for their census-processing requirements. Such
software was built and maintained by non-profit agencies, usually supported by
subsidies from national or international donors.
It would appear that overall there has been less effort in
this respect recently. This can be explained partially by the growing
capabilities of commercially available software. There may also be a case of
donor fatigue. Donors tend to prefer to think in terms of projects with a clear
beginning and end. Developing and maintaining a software system is a
never-ending task, since changing hardware and software environments require
ongoing support and re-development efforts, which can be considerable.
Due to the relative scarcity of new (re-)development, some
public-domain census or survey processing systems are starting to look a little
obsolete. They may, for example, be completely or partially DOS-based. Even
while that software might be as effective as ever, and perfectly able to do the
job, the DOS (Disk Operating System) interface is unfamiliar to a new
generation of users. They also may find it difficult to convince their
supervisors and peers that it is preferable to work in an apparently dated
environment.
Thus using
modern tools is better for a data-processing person's professional reputation
in Nigeria for a better and reliable census result in the country. A
consequence of these developments appears to be increasing use of alternative
software, such as commercial statistical software systems (SAS (Statistical
Analysis System), SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) and
others) and database application generators (MS Access).
3.
Early, proper and adequate
preparation and planning
Early,
proper and adequate preparation and planning: National Population Commission
(NPC) needs to design new methodology and adopt new and modern technologies in
conducting future censuses. As preliminary step, census must be preceded by
preparation of Enumeration Area (EA) maps to guide enumerators, Accurate,
comprehensive, geographically-referenced, mutually exclusive and
non-overlapping Enumeration Area maps, supervisory area maps and locality maps
covering every nook and cranny of the country must be made readily available to
enumerators, Modern powerful Geographic Information Techniques such as remote
sensing (high resolution satellite imaginary and aerial photographs),
Geographical Positioning System GPS), digital cartography and Geographic
Information System (GIS), should be used to facilitate the production of all
base maps needed for successful conduct of population censuses.
Also to be used, are computer based GIS for rapid input,
management, analysis and output of geographically-referenced demographic data. The
National Population Commission should consider the adoption of biometric census
to ensure that the data are accurate, verifiable and dependable. Early and
adequate training of enumerators in data collection techniques and use of
instruments.
In general, census personnel should be experienced,
technically and professionally skilled in the conduct of censuses and surveys.
The commission should embark on value change and re-orientation programmes that
change the wrong perception of censuses as strictly instruments for national
resources sharing, taxation, ethnic dominance and determination of peoples political
and economic status, Information on ethnic group, language and religion should
be excluded in census questionnaires and interview schedules and adequate
publicity should be given to future censuses through print and electronic
media, social media, town criers and other relevant communication systems to
create awareness and sufficiently sensitize the populace to fully participate
in the exercise so as to achieve reliability in census.
4.
Automatic
coding
Recognizing verbal texts usually has
the purpose of accommodating associated automatic coding. That is, the computer
reads a text—for example, the name of a geographic area—and then selects the
applicable code from an associated file or database.
Such solutions, which ideally would
allow completely automatic data capture and coding, depend on two
prerequisites: (1) the recognition process must be sufficiently reliable and
(2) the search algorithms do indeed lead from the recognized term(s) to the
appropriate code. A 100-per-cent character-recognition rate is not required,
since the algorithm may still be successful with incomplete or partially
mangled terms.
The issues of automatic and
computer-assisted coding have been the subject of considerable research (Meyer
and Rivière, 1997; Dopita, 1999; Blum, 1997). The tasks are a challenge to
those applying modern methods of artificial intelligence, neural networks, and
fuzzy logic. But however elegant and advanced the matching algorithms are, once
reporting from the field is multi-interpretable, too general, or otherwise
inadequate, there is no easy way out. By letting the computer take care of the
simpler cases, and relaying the remainder to human coders, an efficiency gain
and reliable result can be obtained
5.
Management, communication, logistics and quality
assurance of data.
A
nationwide census differs in many respects from day-to-day statistical work. It
lacks the repetitive nature that allows collections with a greater periodicity
to gradually be improved. The level of expenditure and number of staff are much
higher than statistical managers are used to. So Nigeria government should
therefore establish census offices separate from the national statistical
agency. It may be necessary to recruit professional management, experienced in
dealing with large but temporary organizations. Since a census can be seen as a
large time-critical project, with many interlocking operations, the use of this
modern project management software is of vital importance in achieving census
reliability in Nigeria.
On
communication: Recent developments in mobile telephony (cell phones) have made
person-to-person communication easier, even in countries with extensive and
reliable fixed-line networks. But complete mobile coverage has not been
accomplished in most developing countries like Nigeria. And census
communication with these remote areas continues to be problematic in some
cases. It is still possible that satellite telephone systems, which function
everywhere on earth, will fill this void. Some ambitious projects in this
domain, such as that known as “Iridium,” have not drawn enough initial
subscribers. But with most of the enormous investment costs now written off,
user prices are coming down. The ground stations including antennas are still
rather voluminous but completely portable. Operations planners need to be
cognizant of all communications options open to them, including regional
differences, and make arrangements accordingly in the country in order to
obtain a reliable result on any census conducted.
On
logistics, a typical application of bar-code technology is to label all items
specific for a particular enumeration area (maps, enumerator identification,
summary sheets and transport box) with a specific bar code. At the point where
the materials are sent out, the codes will be scanned, allowing automatic
update of a database of items forwarded. The same process can be used to
maintain a database of items retrieved from the field which in turn will help
in the quality of data generated.
Quality
assurance, this includes the use of scientifically sound sampling methods and
should be an integrating part of all census operations in the country. Many of
the methods in this field depend on statistical principle and have been
developed by statistical innovators (Deming, 1986). The census office in
Nigeria must strive for a consistent level of assured quality throughout its
operations, and cannot afford to disregard the techniques that help to achieve
and verify it (Statistics Sweden, 2001) so as to achieve a reliable result from
the census.
6.
Adequate funding
By its nature, national population census is capital
intensive. The National Population Commission should actively and intensively
solicit for enough national and international funding by donor agencies such as
the United Nations, World Bank, European Union, African Developmental Bank etc
and also periodic demographic survey should be carried out by the NPC to
provide up-to-date census figures in between the usual ten year periods over
which Nigerian census are conducted to achieve true result of census in the
country.
Reference
Blum,
Olivia (2007). Editing and Coding Module. In New Census Technologies: The Israeli Experience. Proceedings of the
Euro-Med Workshop, March 2007.
Dekker,
Arij (2004). Computer methods in population census data processing. International Statistical Review, vol.
62, No. 1., pp. 55-70.
Deming,
W. Edwards (2006). Out of the Crisis.
Center for Advanced Engineering Study. Cambridge, MA: MIT.
Dopita,
Patricia (2001). Population Census
Evaluation, 2001 Census Data Quality: Occupation. Canberra: Australian
Bureau of Statistics.
Laan, Paul van der, and
Peter Everaers (2001). The Dutch Virtual
Census. Meeting 66, ISI 53rd Session, Seoul, 2001.
Prof. Jude E. Njoku 2015 Retreat for
members and staff of National Population Commission at G-Towers Hotel &
Tourism Owerri.
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